Mortgage Market Update 9-19-2025: Reading Between the Lines of the Fed’s Rate Cut

The Fed rate isn't your barometer for buying a home. The Fed made its long-anticipated rate cut, and while headlines sounded promising, mortgage rates didn’t drop the way many consumers expected. In fact, they ticked up slightly. Why? Because it’s not just about what the Fed does —it’s about what they say and how they say it. The Fed’s tone leaned cautious on inflation, and that was enough to spook markets. For professionals in mortgage and real estate, none of this was surprising—we’ve already seen rates drifting lower in recent weeks. But for consumers, the expectation is simple: Fed cuts rates, so mortgage rates must fall. Reality is far more nuanced. Key Drivers Right Now Jobs Reports Are Critical Mortgage rates often move on employment data. A weak jobs report tends to push mortgage rates lower. Heading into October, expectations aren’t rosy, which could help bring rates down further. Rates Will Likely Decline Gradually Don’t expect a dramatic plunge. Th...