Mortgage Market Update November 21, 2025: Housing Affordability Just Hit A Three-Year High
Mortgage Market Update – November 21, 2025
Why Affordability Just Hit a Three-Year High
If you’ve felt like the housing market has been working against you the past few years, today’s data brings a different story: buyers finally have some tailwind.
A new jobs report, easing mortgage rates, and fresh numbers from Zillow all point to something we haven’t seen in a while—a real improvement in affordability, especially in places like Texas and Florida.
Let’s break down what’s happening and how to talk about it with your buyers and sellers.
1. The Jobs Report, the Fed, and Why Bonds Are Smiling
The delayed September jobs report finally hit this week. The headline:
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Roughly 116,000–119,000 new jobs added – more than forecasters expected (around 50–55k).
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Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% – the highest in several years, but still low by historical standards.
Markets read that as “cooling, but not crashing.” Bond traders liked it, and when bonds improve, mortgage rates tend to drift lower.
Right now:
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The average 30-year fixed is generally in the low-to-mid-6% range, down from north of 7% earlier this year.
This is exactly how it’s supposed to work:
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Markets move before the Federal Reserve.
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The Fed meeting in December will mostly confirm what’s already priced into bonds and mortgage rates.
For buyers and Realtors, that means: you don’t have to wait around for the Fed press conference to see change—rates have already improved from the peak.
2. Home Prices: Cooling, Not Crashing
Here’s where it gets interesting.
Zillow just released a big data dump on home values across the country:
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As of October, about 53% of U.S. homes have lost value over the past year based on their Zestimate.
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The average decline from peak is around 9–10%, even though values remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
Regionally, the cooling is most noticeable in markets that were “white-hot” during and right after COVID:
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Many Florida metros and Texas metros now show a high share of homes that are down from last year and from their peak.
Important perspective:
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Think of a home that went from $300,000 to $450,000 (up 50%), then pulled back 5–10%.
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Even after that pullback, the owner is still sitting on a big equity gain versus where they started.
So no, this is not 2008.
It’s a healthy correction after a runaway period—exactly the kind of breather the next wave of buyers needed.
3. Zillow’s Headline: “More Than Half of Homes Lost Value” (Why That’s Opportunity)
The Yahoo Finance coverage of Zillow’s report summed it up: over half of American homes saw a year-over-year valuation decline, the highest share since 2012.
On the surface, that sounds scary. In practice, it creates opportunity:
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Sellers still have significant equity from the massive run-up of 2020–2023.
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Buyers are seeing:
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More price reductions
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Homes sitting on the market longer
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Negotiating room that simply did not exist in 2021–2022
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In some metros (like DFW, Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando), the share of homes down from last year is even higher than the national 53% figure.
That’s not a “crash.” That’s the market finally letting more people back in the door.
4. Affordability: The Best It’s Been in Three Years
When you zoom out, three big forces are hitting at the same time:
Together, that means:
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Many buyers’ monthly payments are now closer to mid-2022 levels, not the “worst of 2023–early 2025.”
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Zillow’s chief economist has described this shift as some of the best news for buyers in a long time, with affordability at the strongest point in roughly three years.
For first-time buyers, low-to-moderate income households, and VA/FHA borrowers, this is huge. The number one objection the past few years has been, “I just can’t afford it right now.”
For a lot of those people, the math may have changed—quietly, in their favor.
5. Talking Points for Realtors (You Can Use This Week)
If you’re a Realtor, this is the moment to re-engage your “not yet” list.
People to call:
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Buyers who said, “I love you, but I can’t afford a house right now.”
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Renters who were priced out in 2021–2023.
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Homeowners in Texas and Florida who want to move but assumed it was a terrible time.
Simple script idea:
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“We’re finally seeing something we haven’t had in years: more inventory, softer prices, and rates off the peak. Zillow is reporting that more than half of U.S. homes have come down in value over the past year—and affordability is the best it’s been in about three years. I’d love to take a fresh look at the numbers for you. Are you open to a 15-minute check-in?”
For sellers, the message is different:
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“Yes, prices have cooled from the very top. But in most cases, you’re still way ahead of where you started. If you’ve been waiting to right-size, relocate, or move closer to family, this may be the sweet spot: you still have strong equity, and you’re shopping in a more buyer-friendly market on the other side.”
6. What Buyers Should Do Right Now
If you’ve been on the sidelines, here’s how to use this window wisely:
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Run updated numbers. A pre-approval based on early-2025 rates is stale. With today’s rates and price cuts, your max purchase price or desired payment may have improved.
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Look beyond the headlines. National averages mask big local differences. Some ZIP codes are still appreciating; others have quietly discounted.
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Focus on payment and plan, not just price. With slightly lower rates and more negotiating room, you may be able to:
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Buy the home you wanted
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Add a seller credit to reduce your payment or closing costs
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Structure a temporary buydown if it fits your longer-term plan
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And as always: you don’t have to time the perfect bottom. You need a payment you’re comfortable with, a home that fits your life, and a plan for how long you’ll keep it.
7. Quick Note on 50-Year and “Portable” Mortgages
You’ve probably seen the headlines:
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Proposed 50-year mortgages to lower payments
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Portable mortgages you can take from one home to the next
A few key realities:
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These ideas are proposals and pilot concepts, not mainstream loan options you can use today.
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Extending terms to 50 years can reduce monthly payment slightly, but usually:
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Increases total interest dramatically
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Slows equity growth
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Portable mortgages require major changes to how mortgage bonds are written and sold, and experts are skeptical about how broadly they’ll be adopted.
Bottom line: interesting to watch, not something to build your 2025 game plan around. The real, actionable opportunity is the affordability improvement we already have.
8. Let’s Take a Fresh Look at Your Numbers
If you’re in Texas, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, or Colorado and you’ve wondered:
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“Did the market finally swing back in my favor?”
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“What does this new affordability picture mean for my budget?”
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“Can I move, upgrade, or buy my first home without stretching too far?”
I’m here to help you run real numbers—not headlines.
We’ll look at:
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Today’s rates
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Local price trends
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Your income, debts, and comfort zone
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Strategies like seller credits, buydowns, and VA/FHA/Conventional options tailored to you
About the Author
Nate Carver – Mortgage Loan Officer
Premier Lending, Inc. – NMLS #130562
LO NMLS #2004738
Licensed in TX, FL, AL, TN, CO
Equal Housing Opportunity.
If you’re a Realtor and want talking points, co-branded material, or a quick Zoom to walk through this data for your market, let’s schedule a time—and let’s see who in your database is ready to get back in the game.
About Between Two Doors
Between Two Doors is a podcast where Nate talks to Realtors and other influencers in the communities that he serves as a mortgage loan advisor. He has conversations about the guest's journey, aiming to connect home buyers and sellers with Realtors on a more personal level. He ask "right brain" questions that go beyond transactions, focusing on the experiences, values, and passions that make these professionals great at what they do.
Listen to more episodes at: https://www.betweentwodoors.com
Sponsored by:
Premier Lending, Inc.
https://www.natecarver.com
NMLS Numbers:
NMLS: 2004738
Licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI). Equal Housing Opportunity.
https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.com
Contact: 972-832-5761
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