Mortgage Market Analysis: June 13 2025 Trigger Leads and other great news!!!

The U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in May 2025, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 139,000, slightly above forecasts but well below earlier months’ pace tradingeconomics.com. At the same time, the ADP National Employment Report revealed private-sector job gains of just 37,000, underscoring moderation in hiring despite healthy wage growth of 4.5% year-over-year ycharts.com.

Meanwhile, personal income saw a robust 0.8% monthly gain in April (the latest BEA release), translating to nearly a 9.6% annualized increase—an encouraging sign for consumer purchasing power and potential mortgage affordability bea.govtradingeconomics.com. These data points briefly roiled markets: mortgage-bond yields jumped about 50 basis points on mixed inflation and income news, only to retrace much of that move within three business days as traders digested the full picture.

Mortgage Rates & Prospects
Despite headline gyrations, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have stabilized just below 7%, averaging 6.84% as of June 12, 2025, down slightly from 6.85% the prior week . This marginal decline reflects declining 10-year Treasury yields (currently near 4.38%) and healthy secondary‐market liquidity apnews.com.

Importantly, mortgage applications jumped 13% in the past week, fueled by rising inventory and buyers seizing the brief rate relief—an indicator that the purchase market remains active and more robust than a year ago apnews.com.

Advisor Insight: Rather than “rate watching,” loan officers and borrowers are advised to lock in within favorable windows and focus on proactive prospecting, as market “sprint” windows can be short and unpredictable.

Broader Market Context
Over the past seven months, 30-year mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have largely traded within an 80-basis-point range, buffered by geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., ongoing tariff negotiations) and pending fiscal legislation (“the big beautiful bill”). Purchase activity, however, has outpaced levels from 12 and 24 months ago, suggesting sustained consumer demand even as rates hover near multi-decade highs.

 Industry Legislation: Trigger Leads Reform
Great news on the regulatory front: the House Financial Services Committee unanimously advanced H.R. 2808 (the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act) by a 46-0 vote, curbing abusive “trigger leads” while preserving consumer choice and lender relationships consumerfinancemonitor.com. The bill now heads to the full House, bolstered by broad trade-group support from the Mortgage Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers, and American Bankers Association. Continued advocacy through the Mortgage Action Alliance will be key as the bill moves toward final passage.

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Privatization Outlook
Discussions are intensifying around the long-term fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Trump administration has signaled strong interest in privatization—potentially via public offerings—once major legislation clears, with a tentative late-2026 timeline under consideration ainvest.com. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stressed that any exit from conservatorship must safeguard mortgage rate stability, suggesting a careful, phased approach rather than an abrupt transition.

Looking Ahead: Key Dates & Opportunities

• Late June: Next BEA release on May personal income and PCE; potential new volatility around consumer spending data.

• July/August: Mortgage-Market impact of pending fiscal legislation; possible Fed commentary influencing bond yields.

• Here's a really cool graphics showing you everything you just read:

  
  
  

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Key Takeaways

• Labor & Income: Payrolls cooling, personal income growth remains strong—supportive of consumer spending.

• Rate Stability: 30-year rates near 6.84%, with healthy application activity and inventory gains.

• Legislative Wins: Trigger-leads reform advancing unanimously—enhancing consumer privacy and lender fairness.

• Privatization Watch: Fannie/Freddie exit from conservatorship under study, likely post-2026 with rate safeguards.

• Action Items: Lock in when possible, maintain aggressive prospecting, and engage in advocacy via Mortgage Action Alliance.