Mortgage Market Update – September 12, 2025 IT'S TIME TO REFINANCE

 


Mortgage Market Update – September 12, 2025

The mortgage world is buzzing this week with significant developments that could shape the market for the rest of the year. From interest rates brushing key psychological thresholds to major labor data revisions and long-awaited legislative victories, here’s what you need to know.

The 10-Year Treasury: Flirting with 4.0%

For the first time since August 1, 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly dipped below 4.0%. While it hovered right at that line during live trading today, breaking below 4.0% would be an important psychological barrier.

Why does this matter?

  • Mortgage rates track closely with the 10-year.

  • A move down toward 3.95% could open the door for 30-year mortgage rates to settle in the low-6% range.

  • Hitting that mark would ease a major barrier for homebuyers, making affordability more realistic and potentially fueling stronger housing demand.

Mortgage Rates Near 11-Month Lows

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the average fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.29%—the lowest level in nearly a year. In reality, many lenders are already quoting rates even closer to 6.20% or below, depending on compensation plans and loan structures.

With more homes on the market than at any point in the last five years and record-high home equity levels, today’s environment represents one of the best opportunities in three years for buyers and refinancers alike.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations: All Eyes on Next Week

The Fed meets next week, and according to the FedWatch tool:

  • 92% of analysts expect a 25 basis point cut.

  • 8% believe a 50 basis point cut could be on the table.

  • 0% believe the Fed will hold steady.

Even legendary bond watcher Mohamed El-Erian has suggested that larger cuts deserve consideration. While a 50 bps cut is unlikely, markets are already pricing in the possibility of multiple rate cuts over the next several months.

Jobs Data Controversy: Accuracy Matters

A huge story is unfolding around the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Recently, the agency announced downward revisions of 911,000 jobs for the prior year—following another year of nearly 1 million in revisions.

This raises serious questions:

  • How many potential homeowners were sidelined over the past year due to inaccurate data inflating rate projections?

  • How much lower might mortgage rates have been if numbers had been reported correctly from the start?

Regardless of politics, one thing is clear: the housing industry deserves better data. Accurate reporting means better planning for lenders, Realtors, and most importantly—buyers.

Trigger Leads Eliminated: A Victory for Borrowers

On a brighter note, the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act is now law. After years of lobbying and industry pressure, the controversial practice of trigger leads—where borrower information was sold immediately after applying for a mortgage—has been eliminated.

This is a major win for both lenders and consumers:

  • Borrowers can now shop for mortgages without the fear of being bombarded by unwanted calls and solicitations.

  • Lenders can focus on providing value rather than competing against misleading pitches.

  • The industry as a whole gains credibility and consumer trust.

Bottom Line

  • Mortgage rates are trending toward their lowest levels in over a year.

  • The Fed is poised to deliver multiple rate cuts, creating momentum for buyers.

  • Housing inventory is stronger than it has been in five years.

  • Consumers now have greater privacy protections thanks to the trigger leads ban.

If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines—now is the time to get your feet in the starting blocks. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or Realtor, the opportunities in today’s market are some of the best we’ve seen in recent years.

About Between Two Doors

Between Two Doors is a podcast where I talk with Realtors about their journey, aiming to connect home buyers and sellers with agents on a more personal level. I ask "right brain" questions that go beyond transactions, focusing on the experiences, values, and passions that make these professionals great at what they do.

Listen to more episodes: https://www.betweentwodoors.com

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