Mortgage Market Update – Week of September 26th, 2025

 

This week’s headlines paint a picture of a housing market in motion—full of opportunity, disruption, and shifting consumer behavior. From forecasts of sub-6% mortgage rates to the rise of fixer-upper demand and a surge in new home sales, here’s what Realtors, homebuyers, and sellers need to know.

Fannie Mae Eyes Sub-6% Mortgage Rates by 2026

Fannie Mae has adjusted its outlook and now predicts 30-year mortgage rates could dip below 6% by late 2026, down from its earlier estimate of 6.4%.

Why this matters:

  • Buyers may see more affordability and purchasing power if rates hit that milestone.

  • Sellers could benefit from increased buyer traffic, especially in mortgage-heavy markets.

  • Agents should prepare lead-nurture strategies now—so when rates dip, they’re ready to capture the surge.

Even with the forecast, affordability challenges and tight inventory remain obstacles. Still, if inflation trends down and GDP growth steadies at Fannie’s projected 1.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, the potential demand shift could be huge.

Fixer-Uppers Gain Ground

High home prices are pushing buyers toward sweat equity solutions. Listings labeled as “fixer-upper” are seeing 52% more online views compared to similar homes without the tag.

Key takeaways:

  • Median list price for fixer-uppers: about $200,000 (less than half the national average).

  • Risks: higher renovation costs and shrinking flipper margins.

  • Opportunities: inventory in this segment is up nearly 19% since 2021.

For buyers, this could be a chance to stretch dollars—especially when paired with renovation loan options. For agents, partnering with contractors and knowing the renovation process is key to unlocking this market niche.

New Home Sales Surge in August

Sales of newly built single-family homes jumped 20.5% in August to an annualized rate of 800,000 units, according to Census Bureau and HUD data. Year-over-year, that’s a 15.4% increase.

  • Builders are responding: 66% offered incentives and 37% cut prices to move inventory.

  • Inventory: 490,000 new homes for sale = 7.4 months of supply.

  • Agent opportunity: New builds are back in demand. Partner with builders and highlight incentives for buyers who want flexibility and value.

Rate Cuts in Question

A stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP revision (3.8% growth) is complicating the case for more Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed may move cautiously, meaning we could be in a “higher for longer” environment even as small rate dips emerge.

What this means:

  • Buyers: Don’t wait endlessly for perfect rates—today’s affordability windows may already work for your goals.

  • Sellers: Even a small rate cut can improve buyer traffic. Timing your listing around these shifts could pay off.

  • Agents & LOs: Stay proactive—explain to clients how a slight change in rates can make a big difference in payments.

Legal Spotlight: NAR Lawsuit

A new antitrust lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors (NAR) alleges agents have been unfairly burdened. If the case gains traction, it could reshape commission structures, consumer access, and agent operations.

For Realtors, it’s one more reason to lean into value, service, and client education—the human connection that tech or lawsuits can’t replace.

Bottom Line – What to Do Now

  • Agents: Prep for sub-6% rates, lean into fixer-upper knowledge, and refresh builder partnerships.

  • Buyers: If your payment works today, don’t wait for rates that may or may not come. Explore renovation options and builder incentives.

  • Sellers: Position homes smartly—fixer-uppers have new appeal, and new builds are stiff competition.

The market is shifting, and those who prepare now will be ready to win when opportunity strikes.

Want to explore your timing, affordability, or renovation options?
Contact the real estate agent or loan officer who shared this blog—they can help you act smarter in today’s changing market.

About Between Two Doors

Between Two Doors is a podcast where I talk with Realtors about their journey, aiming to connect home buyers and sellers with agents on a more personal level. I ask "right brain" questions that go beyond transactions, focusing on the experiences, values, and passions that make these professionals great at what they do.

Listen to more episodes at: https://www.betweentwodoors.com

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Premier Lending, Inc.
https://www.natecarver.com

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