The Truth About Today’s Housing Market June 19th 2025: A Message from Your Mortgage Expert
The Truth About Today’s Housing Market: A Message from Your Mortgage Expert
Hey friends, it’s Nate Carver—your favorite mortgage guy—checking in with some real talk about where we are in the housing and mortgage market. Whether you're buying your first home, selling your third, or a Realtor helping clients navigate it all, this blog is for you.
I recently sat in on a high-level Zoom town hall with Owen Lee, the Mortgage Banker's Association Vice Chairman for 2025 and other national mortgage leaders, and I’m here to break down the key takeaways that matter most—to real people, not just loan officers.
Let’s dive in!!
Where are people finding their Mortgage Loan Officer?
Let’s start with a surprising stat: over the last 18 months, the way people find their lender hasn’t changed much. Friends and family, past client databases, online search, and even social media have all stayed flat. With all the excitement over AI and Social media there isn't much change in the real estate business. Buying a home is and will remain a very personal touch industry. I'm a huge advocate of building teams. In this instance (Homeowner/Buyer + Realtor + Mortgage Loan Officer).
Here's a pretty slide that shows you what you just read:
That’s right—even with all the buzz about social media marketing, it’s not moving the needle the way many thought it would.
Why does that matter to you? Because personal connection is still the #1 way buyers and sellers find their mortgage pro. Which means if you're a Realtor, now’s the time to deepen your alliances. And if you're a homebuyer or seller? Find a pro who’s already in your circle—or one referred by someone you trust. Did you know a mortgage loan officer can even help you sell your home? Imagine having a loan officer that is committed to helping Realtors sell their listings and homeowners sell that property at no cost to either of you. Yes, there is a real team effort available.
The FED Holds On That Interest rate | Where Are Rates Headed?
Here’s the million-dollar question: Will interest rates go up or down?
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32% of mortgage pros believe they’re heading down.
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56% think they'll stay steady.
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Only 2% believe they’ll increase.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the most common mortgage rates right now are hovering around 6.625%, and we could see modest decreases later this year. But don’t expect a dramatic drop unless something major shifts in the economy. You know that 2.5% you are thinking about a few years ago took a global shut down of the economy and a pandemic. Nobody wants that. Even now with rates being where they are there is a real opportunity to do a debt consolidation via Cash-out Refinance and actually lower your monthly debt payments, freeing up your monthly income so that you have more cash at the end of the month instead of having more month at the end of your cash.
Bottom line for buyers: Don’t wait for a magic number. The current rates are manageable, and pricing adjustments in the housing market may already be in your favor.
Volume Is UP: Best Year Since 2022
This is what got me excited: despite what the headlines might say, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the strongest purchase markets since 2019.
Mortgage volume is tracking up, and MBA data shows we’re headed for 14% growth in home loan units this year. Translation? There is business happening right now—and it’s trending upward into 2026.
If you're buying or selling a home: this is not a bad market. We’ve turned a corner.
Is It a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
It depends where you are, but nationally we're starting to see a shift.
Florida, for example, now has more sellers than buyers—something we haven’t seen since 2013. Inventory is growing, and seller concessions are becoming more common.
Here’s how the market is moving in some key states:
| State | Price Change (Q1) |
|---|---|
| Florida | -1.1% |
| Texas | +1.6% |
| Tennessee | +2.5% |
| Ohio | +7.6% |
| Michigan | +7.0% |
Realtors: In areas where seller leverage is slipping, this is your chance to educate sellers on pricing strategy and help buyers negotiate better terms.
Homebuyers: You may have more room to ask for credits or repairs than you did even six months ago.
AI in Mortgage Lending: Friend or Foe?
My take is best summed up in two pictures. Think of video games from the 1970's and where they are today. That's pretty accurate image of AI, except EXPONENTIALLY FASTER in growth!! AI is shaking up our industry—but not replacing it.
AI can’t be licensed as a Realtor or a Mortgage Loan Officer.
AI can’t give rate quotes or credit advice or take your on property tours.
But it can work behind the scenes to help mortgage pros like me identify warm leads, follow up faster, and streamline your homebuying process, and marketing your property.
Think of it like this: AI is my assistant, not my replacement. It helps me spend more time with you and less time on busywork.
If you’re a Realtor: Partnering with tech-savvy mortgage pros (like me 😉) means your clients get faster answers and better service—without sacrificing the human touch.
Trigger Leads: Big News Coming
You know those annoying calls buyers get after applying for a mortgage? That’s due to trigger leads—and they may soon be history.
The U.S. Senate just passed a bill unanimously to reduce or eliminate trigger leads.
The House Financial Services Committee passed it 46-0, and a full vote is scheduled for June 23.
This is a big win for consumers' privacy and for professionals who want to control the homebuying experience—not get it hijacked by spammy call centers.
CFPB - Consumer Financial Protection Board
Bottom line the Executive branch stopped funding it. This is Congress's baby so Congress has to make changes for anything to stick permanently. Changing the rules takes 18–24 months to move through Washington. Lots and lots of ideas are being floated around Washington.
If and when things change, I’ll be here to break it down for you.
Key Takeaways
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Housing activity is increasing—this is a better-than-average year for homebuyers.
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Rates may drop slightly, but don't wait—prices and opportunity are moving now.
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Personal referrals still rule. Build your team with trusted pros.
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AI is changing the game—partner with people using it to help you win.
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Trigger leads may soon be out of the picture.
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LO compensation changes are a slow-moving conversation—nothing to worry about today.
Final Thought
This isn’t 2020 or 2021—and that’s a good thing. We’re in a normalizing market that rewards preparation, partnerships, and being proactive.
Whether you're a Realtor looking to guide more clients to the closing table, or a buyer wondering if now is the right time to jump in—I’m here to help.
Let’s talk! If you or someone you know is thinking about buying, selling, refinancing, or just has questions—reach out. Let’s get ahead of the sprint together.
📞 Call/Text: 972-832-5761
📧 nate@premierlending.com
🔗 natecarver.com
About Between Two Doors
Between Two Doors is a podcast where I talk with Realtors and community influencers about their journey, aiming to connect home buyers and sellers with agents on a more personal level. I ask "right brain" questions that go beyond transactions, focusing on the experiences, values, and passions that make these professionals great at what they do.
🎧 Listen to more episodes at: https://www.betweentwodoors.com
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