Weekly Mortgage Market Update June 26th: Rates and Trigger Leads

 


Weekly Mortgage Market Update

As we approach the midpoint of 2025, here’s what Realtors and homebuyers need to know about the evolving mortgage landscape.

Market Overview

Since January 1st, the mortgage market has experienced a series of ups and downs—what many experts call “a series of sprints.” At its high watermark in April, markets enjoyed the most favorable conditions of the year, but we’ve since pulled back about 35 basis points from that peak. This movement is best tracked via the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) trade coupon, which moves inversely to interest rates—when the trade coupon line goes up, rates are heading down investopedia.com.

Interest Rate Trends

  • Current Position: We’re creeping back toward that April high for MBS coupons, a positive sign for rate-sensitive buyers.

  • Inflation Signals: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—is due Friday. Markets expect month-over-month inflation of just 0.1%, keeping the annual PCE near 2.3% investopedia.com.

  • Outlook: With inflation muted for the past three months and more data on the way, there’s growing confidence that rates could ease further in Q3.

  • REMEMBER:  When  the blue line goes up rates go down

Geopolitical & Political Factors

While the mortgage market tends to shy away from partisan debate, trade tensions and government policy do ripple into rates:

  • Tariffs & Trade: Early-year tariff concerns have largely faded, but if new measures emerge, they could inject volatility ft.com.

  • Federal Stimulus & Debt: As the U.S. carries record debt levels, bond auctions and interest paid on that debt can exert upward pressure on rates over time.

Trigger Leads Legislation

In regulatory news, the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (H.R. 2808/S. 1467) has passed both chambers of Congress and awaits reconciliation. Once signed, it will severely limit “trigger leads”—the practice of credit bureaus selling borrower information to multiple lenders without explicit consumer consent.  For the most current updates on the Trigger Leads bill follow Owen Lee on LinkedIn at the Mortgage Action Alliance:

“The passage of this consequential bill… is another important step forward in our fight to provide relief for consumers who face a torrent of unwanted emails, texts, and phone calls the moment they apply for a mortgage.”
—Bob Broeksmit, MBA nationalmortgageprofessional.com

What Realtors & Lenders Should Do Now

  • Ensure every mortgage disclosure includes explicit consent for post-application contact.

  • Prepare marketing strategies to compete for the now-limited trigger leads.

  • Educate clients on opting in—opt-outs will mean no notification of rate-shopping.

Implications for Realtors

  1. Stronger Client Relationships

    • With fewer third-party solicitations, your direct communication channels become even more valuable.

  2. Competitive Edge

    • By securing consent up front, you’ll be among the select few to receive a borrower’s lead.

  3. Marketing Adjustments

    • Shift budgets from broad trigger-lead campaigns to targeted, consent-driven outreach.

What This Means for Homebuyers

  • Less Noise: Expect far fewer unsolicited calls after pulling credit.

  • Privacy Protection: You’ll control which lenders can contact you.

  • Better Service: Realtors and lenders will need to provide clear value to earn your consent.

Everything points to a strong second half of 2025 for mortgage-rate stability and improved borrower experiences. As always, staying informed—and helping your clients stay informed—is key to navigating these market “sprints.”

Nate Carver
Host, Between Two Doors & Mortgage Loan Officer
✉️ nate@natacarver.com
📞 972-832-5761

About Between Two Doors
Between Two Doors is a podcast where I talk with Realtors about their journey, aiming to connect home buyers and sellers with agents on a more personal level. I ask “right brain” questions that go beyond transactions, focusing on the experiences, values, and passions that make these professionals great at what they do.

Listen to more episodes at: https://www.betweentwodoors.com

Sponsored by:
Premier Lending, Inc.
https://www.natecarver.com

NMLS Numbers:
NMLS: 2004738
Licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI). Equal Housing Opportunity.
https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.com

📞 Contact: 972-832-5761

Follow Us on Social Media:
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Location: McKinney, TX, USA

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